Simpsonville, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

919
FXUS62 KGSP 031439
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
939 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers over the North Carolina mountains and flurries in the
Piedmont taper off by this morning with drier conditions returning.
Unseasonably cold air remains in place before a brief warm-up mid-
week and a return to cooler temperatures. Possible wetter pattern
towards the end of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 936 AM EST Tuesday: Radar returns are scant across all but
the northern Blue Ridge, where isolated flurries may be ongoing
still.  Temps are on the rise, and slick roadways along the I-40
corridor should diminish accordingly within the next 1-2 hours.
Other than a deck of stratocu in place across the NC mountains
and parts of the foothills, the whole region has cleared out,
and should remain so going forward.

Otherwise, flurries should become increasingly confined to the
TN border and vicinity, as moisture continues to deplete through
late morning. Still expect an unseasonably cold day, with max temps
of around 15 degrees below climo expected in most locations. With
the surface pressure gradient relaxing tonight, as the center of
dry surface high pressure settles over the southern Appalachians,
ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected, and min temps
of 15-20 degrees below normal should result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Quick warm-up before another cold front on crosses the area on
Thursday.

2) Any precipitation chances confined to the mountains with the
front.

As of 210 AM Tuesday: Continuing into the short term with a similar
setup that`s been persisting for a while. The CWA remains stuck
underneath NW flow aloft and dry high pressure near the surface. Dry
conditions are expected for most of the short term. Meanwhile,
another area of low pressure develops across the Great Lakes region
and looks to dip southward, bringing a cold front across the area.
Guidance is trending drier with this front as QPF response is
limited. This is due mainly to decreased time for moisture to return
ahead of the front on Wednesday night. Given the cold air still in
place, very light snow accumulations could be possible along the
NC/TN border with the NW flow. Therefore, slight chance (15%-25%)
PoP for frozen precipitation in the mountains Wednesday night. Once
the front passes, yet another continental polar air mass spills in
behind and shunts off any precip chances again. Temperatures look to
have a quick and small warm up on Thursday before cold air
infiltrates.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages

1) Mostly dry conditions with low chances for rain.

2) Temperatures start to warm up by the weekend.

As of 215 AM Tuesday: Picking up on Friday, the strong area of low
pressure up north and accompanying trough start to slide off the NE
shoreline. High pressure near the surface also makes and eastward
exit. Out west, long term guidance develops a split trough and area
of low pressure across the desert SW. Guidance also takes a nose
dive on agreement of exactly where this low ejects and diverges on
how it even affects the CWA. By the end of the weekend, moisture
looks to return when surface flow finally turns more southerly. Some
guidance trends on the wetter side, but is too far out to pinpoint.
If there is a chance for precipitation, temperatures rebound above
freezing and are trending warmer as well, especially outside the
mountains. Rain chances do start to increase (40%-50%) by Monday.
However, it`s at the end of the forecast period and will change.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. VFR stratocu, mainly in the 035-050 range will linger at
KAVL early in the period, but should scatter out by afternoon.
Elsewhere, FEW/SCT mid/high level clouds will clear by late morning
at the other sites. Light N winds will become N/NW at 5-10 kts later
this morning (except increasing to 10-15 kts with higher gusts at
KAVL), becoming light/variable this evening. Winds are expected to
become SW late Wed morning.

Outlook: A weak cold front crosses the area Thursday and may bring
light precip and restrictions to the mountains. Gusty winds likely
most locations. Dry high pressure returns through Saturday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JDL/MPR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JDL